Tuesday, May 31, 2011

To QE3 or not to QE3?

Now we are one day away from the calender flipping to June, the market trading story du jour is whether the FED is considering QE3. We are already scheduled for QE2+, wherein the FED ends outright treasury purchases but still repurchases new debt with existing maturing securities. So under no circumstances is the FED balance sheet going to shrink. The only consideration is how the market reacts to the rate at which the balance sheet expansion is slowing.

News Coming in For: 
The Inevitable-or-Face-Central-Bankruptcy Theory (with video!)
The "Soft Patch Case" Means QE3 is Likely
The Bernank will be "Forced to Execute QE3"

News Coming in Against:
A 10% Chance
"High Bar" Necessary to Trigger QE3

Either way, this is the highest priority fiscal news item for the month of June, trumping Greece and PIIGS news a thousand times over. If the market feels QE3 is coming, or should ibe announced as policy, then the dollar will continue to sink, commodities will rise, and markets will rise. If QE program winds down as has been previously indicated, then the opposite will occur. A soft summer sell-off would then be probable and fairly predictable.

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