Saturday, October 9, 2010
Wednesday, September 22, 2010
Saturday, August 28, 2010
Sunday, August 15, 2010
Monday, August 2, 2010
Thursday, July 29, 2010
Friday, July 16, 2010
Tuesday, June 29, 2010
Wednesday, June 23, 2010
Tuesday, June 22, 2010
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Tuesday, June 8, 2010
Sunday, June 6, 2010
Friday, June 4, 2010
Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Monday, May 31, 2010
This analysis would recommend the 560 to 580 strike range (a paltry 1,700+% gain). The July 560, 570 and 580 calls closed at 3.32, 2.50 and 1.75, respectively. These actually seem pretty cheap considering the VIX is still rattling around 30+. It would be nice to see volatility fall before getting into this position, but not at the expense of any upside on GOOG if they've already turned the corner. If the volatility remains high this may be a good straight stock play but you lose the leverage and eat up margin.
So anyway, this seems like a relatively good risk/reward, as far as GOOG goes in my opinion. Obviously the lower strikes are 'safer.' Even without the herculean run up to 600+, the 520 calls are 10.50 and would "only" need GOOG to run to 542 in order to double in value, and still has the potential to turn into $9,000 if the run-up were to occur. July might not be far enough out and this position may need to be rolled into August during a good bull run but those are good problems to have.
Monday, May 10, 2010
Sunday, March 21, 2010
Two-year notes sold by the billionaire’s Berkshire Hathaway Inc. in February yield 3.5 basis points less than Treasuries of similar maturity, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Procter & Gamble Co., Johnson & Johnson and Lowe’s Cos. debt also traded at lower yields in recent weeks, a situation former Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. chief fixed-income strategist Jack Malvey calls an “exceedingly rare” event in the history of the bond market.
The $2.59 trillion of Treasury Department sales since the start of 2009 have created a glut as the budget deficit swelled to a post-World War II-record 10 percent of the economy and raised concerns whether the U.S. deserves its AAA credit rating. The increased borrowing may also undermine the first-quarter rally in Treasuries as the economy improves.
Sunday, March 14, 2010
"I've met privately with veteran investment managers like Morris Offit of Offit Capital Advisers and learned that gold is fast becoming a more highly weighted asset in portfolios. The gold bubble is a function of the growing unrest about the debasement of currencies, not only the dollar, but also the euro and other European currencies whose nations have too great a debt load and must raise gobs of money or risk default."
"Gold's investment glimmer is also a function of growing unease, specifically about the ability of the Obama Administration to reduce the budget deficit and finance extending health care. The rising interest in gold reflects a concern about America's place in the world, an expectation of slower growth in comparison with more dynamic economies in China, India and other developing nations."
Friday, March 5, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
"He said having other alternatives to the dollar 'would limit the extent to which the international monetary system as a whole depends on the policies and conditions of a single, albeit dominant, country.'"
Friday, February 26, 2010
"[Gold] recently broke from its usual inverse relationship with the U.S. dollar to move more in sync with the climb in the greenback, showing off its prowess as a resilient world favorite."
"In a world where governments are openly devaluing their fiat currencies in an attempt to ease increasing stimulus debts and increase exports, central banks are figuring out the best way to preserve their wealth: the U.S. dollar and gold. Look for them to trade up together," he said.
"Gold's ability to rise in most major currencies is suggesting people are choosing it as an alternative to paper currencies," said Peter Grandich, a metals writer at Agoracom.com. And people are choosing the precious metal "because of the huge amount of debt the western world has piled up and the belief the only way out from under it is to reflate."
Wednesday, February 24, 2010
That was the unmistakable message from the Federal Reserve last week when it increased the discount rate, the rate it charges banks for borrowing reserves. Although the move came sooner than many expected, it was a healthy step toward more normal conditions and a sign the banking system is healing. The Fed stressed that the move doesn't mean any imminent rise in the more important federal-funds rate. Despite the soothing words, it's a clear warning that near-zero interest rates won't last forever, and that the Fed is prepared to act when necessary to raise rates.
---> However, the article stresses that "inflation hedges" such as gold are over-valued and recommends rebalancing your portfolio with no real sense of urgency over the next three months.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Sunday, February 21, 2010
- One must trust government numbers...
"When energy and food costs are added in, consumer prices overall rose 0.2 percent, the Labor Department said. But the core figure is widely considered a more precise gauge of long-term inflation trends."
- So core inflation is 2.4% annual less volatile energy/food. Not exactly "lowest in 28 years."
"The Fed does not think that inflation will be a problem through this year, if only because the economy is still in a wobbly recovery. When people are out of work and don't have as much money to spend as they used to, there's less demand for goods, which keeps inflation down. Institutionally, that's the Fed's view. "
- And the Fed's view on a 10X money supply and trillions in deficits?
"But not every Fed policymaker agrees. In a speech Thursday, St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard said the financial markets are expecting inflation to pick up, citing increased spreads between yields on ordinary Treasury securities and inflation-protected Treasury securities, whose principal rises and falls with prices. If inflation-protected Treasuries are selling at a faster clip, that means people are worried inflation will rise. "
- I'll be keeping my eye on what James Bullard has to say going forward...
Thursday, February 18, 2010
Today's action indicated continued technical strength with a close today right at 50:
Tepid investors could certainly wait until the 50-day moving average crossed over the 200-day, though this is a long term plan (2-3 years overall) so their is no harm in waiting as opposed to getting in earlier, especially if you personally think interest rates are going to drop. Some perspective is helped by also viewing the 3-month chart next to the 2-year:
Setting up nicely for a bull run, wouldn't you say? Let's go TBT!
BABY BEAR: Long stock, 2 shares for every 100 bucks. Go nuts.
MAMA BEAR: A little more leverage: Jan-2011 calls at 53 for 4.15. (close on Feb 18). You have 12 times the gain potential but limited time (10 months). You control 24 shares for every 100 bucks, but need 57.15 or higher by next January to break even.
PAPA BEAR: Bull call spread, buy the Jan11-50 calls at 5.40, and sell the 60 calls for 2.30. You're risking $3.10 to make $10. The probability of a 10 point move is more than 50/50, making this a lower risk than it appears. $322 potential per $100, but you have set a target for 60.
Personally, I like the mama bear play, because it doesn't cap the upside should things really get moving.
NEW YORK, Feb. 18 (Xinhua) -- The dollar extended gains on Thursday as wholesale prices increased more than expected last month.
The U.S. Labor Department reported that the producer price index for finished goods rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4 percent in January on the back of higher energy costs, much higher than analysts had expected. The core PPI, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, rose 0.3 percent, also higher than the expectation of 0.1 percent.
The Fed has left key interest rates at a record low levels as risk of inflation was kept in check. Rising wholesale inflation may weigh on Fed's decision on when to start tightening credit.
The latest statement from Fed, which was released after market closing on Thursday, said the central bank decided to increase the overnight loan rates it charges banks by 25 basis points to 0.75 percent.
The dollar was boosted as speculation of higher interest rates lured more investors.